Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Sociology
• Climate Science

Background:

• Climate change is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of human migration.
• Environmental and climate conditions are triggers for both voluntary and forced displacement.
• Existing international frameworks are inadequate for addressing contemporary migration patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the intersection of human migration and climate change.
• To highlight the need for anticipatory engagement with climate-induced displacement.
• To review current approaches and proposals for protecting environmental migrants.

Main Methods:

• Literature review of existing evidence on climate change and migration.
• Analysis of current global migration regimes and their limitations.
• Examination of proposals for new international arrangements and conventions.

Main Results:

• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating migration pressures, particularly for vulnerable populations.
• Models predict significant future displacement due to extreme climate conditions.
• Most environmental migrants will move within their own countries, not across international borders.
• Existing post-WWII migration regimes are ill-equipped to handle current migration drivers.

Conclusions:

• Migration is a critical adaptation strategy to climate change and must be anticipated.
• There is a growing consensus among stakeholders to utilize existing instruments for environmental migrant protection.
• Proposals for a dedicated UN agency and a new Convention are gaining traction, primarily from academia and NGOs.