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Updated: Dec 6, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Quantifying and optimizing agroecosystem services in China's Taihu Lake Basin
Xibao Xu1, Jingping Liu1, Yan Tan2
1Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China.
This study on rice-wheat systems in China found declining grain yields and soil carbon but increasing nitrogen loss and N2O emissions. Recommended strategies include targeted fertilizer reduction and straw return to improve water quality and stabilize production.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Environmental Science
- Ecosystem Services
Background:
- The Taihu Lake Basin, a major Chinese grain production area, suffers from severe water quality degradation.
- Rice-wheat agroecosystems are critical for food security but impact environmental quality.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem services (grain yield, nitrogen loss, N2O emission, soil organic carbon accumulation) in the Taihu Lake Basin from 1986-2015.
- To evaluate the effects of straw return and fertilizer reduction strategies on ecosystem services.
- To propose pathways for stabilizing grain production and improving water quality.
Main Methods:
- Application of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) at the county level.
- Simulation of six scenarios combining two straw return modes (full vs. none) and three fertilizer reduction levels (-5%, -10%, -20%).
- Analysis of ecosystem service trends and interrelationships.
Main Results:
- Annual grain yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation showed downward trends, while nitrogen (N) loss and N2O emissions increased from 1986-2015.
- Synergies were observed between increased grain yield and SOC accumulation (45.8% of land), and decreased N2O emission and N loss (2.4%).
- Trade-offs existed between increased SOC accumulation and decreased N loss (19.0%), and increased SOC accumulation and decreased N2O emission (2.4%).
- Fertilizer use positively correlated with grain yield and SOC, but reduced N loss and N2O emissions. Straw return increased yield and SOC, reduced N loss, but increased N2O emissions.
Conclusions:
- Targeted fertilizer reduction (20% where N application > 490 kg N/ha) and combined straw return with moderate fertilizer reduction (5% where N application is 380-490 kg N/ha) are recommended.
- These strategies aim to reduce nitrogen loss, stabilize grain supply, and mitigate water quality issues in the rice-wheat agroecosystems.
- Understanding ecosystem service dynamics is crucial for sustainable agricultural management in ecologically sensitive regions.
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