Substrate-dependent fish have shifted less in distribution under climate change.

Area of Science:

• Marine Biology
• Climate Change Ecology
• Fisheries Science

Background:

• Fish species distributions are influenced by a complex interplay of oceanographic and physiographic variables.
• Previous analyses predominantly focused on dynamic oceanographic variables, potentially overlooking crucial static factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the differential impact of oceanographic versus static environmental variables on fish species distribution shifts.
• To determine how species functional groups (benthic vs. pelagic) respond to different environmental drivers under climate change.

Main Methods:

• Analyzed 30-year shifts in fish species distribution centroids and range boundaries.
• Correlated distribution shifts with environmental variables including bottom substrate, salinity, temperature, and depth.
• Differentiated analyses based on species functional groups (benthic and pelagic).

Main Results:

• Species distributions strongly associated with bottom substrate shifted significantly less than those linked to salinity.
• Species primarily influenced by bottom temperature or ocean salinity exhibited greater shifts in range boundaries and centroids.
• Benthic species, associated with substrate, showed less distribution shift compared to pelagic species, which are more influenced by ocean temperatures.

Conclusions:

• Bottom substrate is a critical static variable influencing fish distribution stability.
• Benthic fish species, more dependent on substrate, are less likely to shift their distributions in response to future climate change compared to pelagic species.
• Understanding the influence of both static and dynamic variables is crucial for predicting species' adaptive capacity to climate change.