A minimal model for household effects in epidemics.
Greg Huber1, Mason Kamb1,2, Kyle Kawagoe3
1Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, San Francisco, CA 94158, United States of America.
Physical Biology
|October 21, 2020
Summary
COVID-19 confinement strategies created distinct household contact patterns, altering epidemic dynamics. The basic reproduction number (R 0) surprisingly depends on household size, impacting public health policies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Confinement strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic led to stratified contact patterns, with close contacts within households and distant contacts between them.
- These altered contact dynamics significantly influence epidemic transmission patterns.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a minimal mathematical model incorporating household effects into epidemic transmission dynamics.
- To analyze how household size influences the basic reproduction number (R 0).
- To discuss the implications of these findings for public health interventions.
Main Methods:
- Development of a minimal mathematical model within the framework of mean-field theory.
- Utilizing numerical simulations to analyze epidemic transmission.
- Investigating the relationship between household size and the reproduction number (R 0).
Main Results:
- The basic reproduction number (R 0) demonstrates a non-linear dependence on household size.
- R 0 increases linearly with household size for smaller households.
- R 0 increases as the square root of household size for larger households.
Conclusions:
- Household size is a critical factor influencing epidemic spread, with implications for R 0.
- Findings suggest that public health policies like lockdowns, testing, tracing, and isolation need to consider household structures.
- The model provides insights into optimizing intervention strategies based on household demographics.
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