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JUE Insight: How much does COVID-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other U.S. cities
Edward L Glaeser1, Caitlin Gorback2, Stephen J Redding3
1Department of Economics, Harvard University, and NBER, United States.
Journal of Urban Economics
|October 27, 2020
Summary
Mobility restrictions significantly reduced COVID-19 spread. A 10% drop in mobility correlated with a 19% decrease in cases per capita, with stronger effects observed in East Coast cities.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Understanding the impact of mobility restrictions on infectious disease transmission is crucial for public health.
- COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) spread rapidly, necessitating interventions like mobility limitations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the effectiveness of mobility restrictions in mitigating COVID-19 transmission.
- To examine spatial and temporal variations in the impact of mobility restrictions.
Main Methods:
- Utilized zip code-level data from five U.S. cities to estimate the relationship between mobility changes and COVID-19 cases.
- Employed instrumental variable regression, using residential teleworkable and essential shares to address endogeneity.
- Analyzed New York City panel data with week and zip code fixed effects.
Main Results:
- A 10 percentage point decrease in mobility was associated with a 19% reduction in cases per capita.
- Instrumental variable analysis indicated a 25% decline in cases per capita with reduced mobility.
- New York City data showed a 30% decrease in cases per capita.
- Stronger effects were observed in East Coast cities, particularly New York City during the early pandemic.
Conclusions:
- Mobility restrictions are an effective tool for limiting COVID-19 spread.
- The impact of mobility restrictions varies geographically and temporally, with significant heterogeneity observed.
- Policy interventions should consider these spatial and temporal dynamics for optimal public health outcomes.
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