Cardiovascular Risk Prediction using JBS3 Tool: A Kerala based Study

Area of Science:

• Cardiology and Public Health
• Epidemiological Studies of Cardiovascular Disease

Background:

• The Joint British Society calculator 3 (JBS3) cardiovascular risk assessment tool's accuracy may differ across Indian states.
• This accuracy has not been previously verified in the South Indian population of Kerala.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate cardiovascular risk estimation using traditional risk factors in the Kerala population.
• To assess the prevalence of 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular risk categories within this demographic.

Main Methods:

• A cross-sectional study of 977 individuals aged 30-80 years from Ernakulum district, Kerala.
• Utilized standard risk categories for 10-year (Low <7.5%, Intermediate ≥7.5% to <20%, High ≥20%) and lifetime (Low ≤39%, High ≥40%) risk.
• Employed Chi-square tests and multivariate logistic regression for statistical analysis.

Main Results:

• The study population (mean age 52.56±11.43 years) showed 35.9% with high 10-year risk and 58.9% with high lifetime risk.
• A notable 25.0% were in the intermediate 10-year risk category, with many reclassifying to high lifetime risk.
• Statistical analysis indicated a good model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test).

Conclusions:

• Risk stratification using traditional factors is essential for cardiovascular disease prevention in Kerala.
• Identifying intermediate-risk individuals allows for targeted interventions to prevent progression to high lifetime risk.
• Proactive therapeutic and lifestyle modifications based on risk prediction can significantly reduce cardiovascular disease mortality.