Assessing outcomes in a lupus nephritis cohort over a 40-year period

To characterize a LN cohort over 40 years, assessing its evolution, analysing two major outcomes: the development of end-stage renal disease and mortality rates in the first 5 years after LN diagnosis.

An observational retrospective study of patients with LN, followed up from 1975 at University College Hospital. Patients were divided into four groups, depending on the decade of LN diagnosis: 1975-1985 (D1), 1986-1995 (D2), 1996-2005 (D3) and 2006-2015 (D4). Comparison between groups was performed with respect to demographic, clinical, serological and histological characteristics and outcome.

Two hundred and nineteen patients with LN were studied. There was a change in ethnic distribution, with a decreasing proportion of Caucasians (58.6% in D1 to 31.3% in D4, P = 0.018) and increase in African-ancestry (17.2% in D1 to 39.6% in D4, P = 0.040). Serological and histological patterns changed throughout time, with a reduction in class IV nephritis (51.7% in D1 to 27.1% in D4, P = 0.035), and increase in class II nephritis (10% in D2 to 18.8% in D4, P = 0.01) and anti-extractable nuclear antigen antibody positivity (17.2% in D1 to 83.3% in D4, P = 0.0001). The 5-year mortality rates decreased from D1 (24.1%) to D2 (4%), stabilizing for the next 30 years. The 5-year progression to end-stage renal disease remained stable over the decades.

Despite the changes in treatment of LN in the past 20 years, we have reached a plateau in 5-year mortality and progression to end-stage renal disease rates, suggesting that new therapeutic and management approaches, and strategies to enhance adherence, are needed to improve outcomes further in LN patients.