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Risk and Protective Factors for Gun Violence in Male Juvenile Offenders
Dustin Pardini1, Jordan Beardslee2, Meagan Docherty3
1School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Arizona State University.
Summary
This study found that while carrying guns predicted future violence in male juvenile offenders, protective factors like concern for others and adult support can reduce gun violence risk. Interventions should target both risk and protective factors.
Area of Science:
- Criminology
- Developmental Psychology
- Public Health
Background:
- Male juvenile offenders are at high risk for future gun violence.
- Understanding predictors of gun violence is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies.
- Longitudinal studies are needed to identify modifiable risk and protective factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine risk and protective factors predicting future gun violence in male juvenile offenders.
- To identify specific behaviors and supports associated with reduced gun violence.
- To inform the development of targeted interventions for this population.
Main Methods:
- A longitudinal cohort study of 1,170 male juvenile offenders (ages 14-19) adjudicated for serious offenses.
- Data collected through interviews every 6 months for 3 years, then annually for 4 years.
- Generalized estimating equation models used to analyze self-reported gun violence and time-lagged predictors (risk and protective factors).
Main Results:
- Gun carrying was a significant predictor of future gun violence, though not all who carried guns engaged in violence.
- Other significant risk factors included drug dealing, heavy drinking, rewards for crime, gang membership, and peer gun carrying.
- Protective factors such as concern for others, aspirations for work/family, religious beliefs, and adult social supports significantly predicted lower gun violence.
Conclusions:
- Interventions should aim to reduce identified risk factors for gun violence.
- Strengthening protective factors is essential to mitigate the risk of gun violence among juvenile offenders.
- A dual approach targeting both risk reduction and protective factor enhancement is recommended.
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