Ecological limits to evolutionary rescue.

Area of Science:

• Evolutionary biology
• Ecology
• Conservation science

Background:

• Environmental changes, both natural and human-driven, pose significant threats to species survival.
• Evolutionary adaptation is a key mechanism for species to persist in dynamic environments.
• Classic models predict species traits track environmental changes, but extinction occurs if fitness lags.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore conditions under which evolutionary adaptation leads to evolutionary rescue and prevents extinction.
• To investigate the impact of ecological complications on adaptation and species persistence.
• To propose a theoretical framework for predicting species survival in changing environments.

Main Methods:

• Review and exploration of quantitative genetics models incorporating ecological realism.
• Analysis of four ecological complications: non-quadratic fitness, density- and trait-dependence, species interactions, and adaptation limits.
• Synthesis of theoretical and experimental approaches across organizational scales.

Main Results:

• Non-quadratic fitness functions and interacting density- and trait-dependent mortality can lead to evolutionary tipping points and existential crises.
• Interspecific interactions significantly influence adaptation rates and species persistence.
• Existing models often assume constant environmental change, potentially overlooking critical factors.

Conclusions:

• Ecological complexities can undermine the potential for evolutionary rescue, increasing extinction risk.
• A new theoretical framework considering bounded environmental change and adaptation limits is proposed.
• Integrated research combining theory, experiments, and cross-scale analysis is crucial for predicting species persistence in changing environments.