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Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
Haamed Al Hassan1,2,3,4, Eve Cocks2, Lara Jesani2
1Cardiff and Vale University Health Board, Cardiff, United Kingdom, and Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care and Pain Medicine, Division of Population Medicine, Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom.
Abstract:
Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59-82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550-0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411-0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543-0.714).
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