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Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework
Simon Dellicour1,2, Sebastian Lequime3, Bram Vrancken3
1Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Université Libre de Bruxelles, CP160/12, 50 Avenue FD Roosevelt, 1050, Bruxelles, Belgium. simon.dellicour@ulb.ac.be.
Nature Communications
|November 7, 2020
Summary
This study reveals temperature influences West Nile virus (WNV) spread and genetic diversity in North America. WNV disperses faster in warmer areas, with temperature changes predicting genetic diversity.
Area of Science:
- Computational biology
- Epidemiology
- Viral genomics
Background:
- Pathogen genome analysis aids understanding of epidemic spread and transmission.
- West Nile virus (WNV) significantly impacts public, veterinary, and wildlife health in North America.
Purpose of the Study:
- To demonstrate how spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic methods can test epidemiological hypotheses beyond historical reconstructions.
- To investigate the influence of environmental factors on WNV lineage dispersal and genetic diversity in North America.
Main Methods:
- Application of an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection.
- Utilizing phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches for hypothesis testing.
- Comparing computational inference with simulation data.
Main Results:
- WNV lineages exhibit faster dispersal in regions with higher temperatures.
- Temporal variations in temperature are identified as key predictors of viral genetic diversity over time.
- No evidence suggests WNV lineages are confined to specific migratory bird flyways; non-migratory birds or mosquitoes likely play a role in dispersal.
Conclusions:
- Environmental factors, particularly temperature, significantly shape WNV transmission dynamics and genetic diversity.
- The study highlights the utility of advanced computational methods for testing epidemiological hypotheses.
- Dispersal patterns suggest complex interactions beyond migratory bird flyways, involving other vectors or pathways.
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