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Later onset, fewer deaths from COVID.

Ainoa Aparicio Fenoll1, Shoshana Grossbard2

  • 1University of Turin, Department of Economics, Torino, Italy; IZA, GLO, and CHILD.

Pathogens and Global Health
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PubMed
Summary

Countries and US states experiencing their first COVID-19 death later had fewer overall fatalities. This "late starter" advantage in managing the pandemic was linked to lockdown policies.

Keywords:
SARS-CoV-2Western countrieslockdownsmedical technologymortality

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant mortality globally.
  • Understanding factors influencing COVID-19 death rates is crucial for public health preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if a later start date for COVID-19 deaths impacts overall mortality in European countries and US states.
  • To identify factors, such as lockdown policies, that may explain differences in COVID-19 mortality based on the pandemic's start date.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of 29 European Union countries and 50 US states.
  • Statistical controls for demographic, economic, and health policy variables.
  • Examination of COVID-19 mortality at 60 and 100 days post-pandemic onset.

Main Results:

  • Regions experiencing their first COVID-19 death at a later date exhibited significantly fewer deaths.
  • Differential implementation of partial or complete lockdown strategies contributed to the reduced mortality observed in late-starting regions.

Conclusions:

  • A delayed pandemic start date appears to be associated with lower COVID-19 mortality.
  • The strategic use of lockdown policies is a key factor in mitigating pandemic-related deaths.