Prediction improvement of potential PV production pattern, imagery satellite-based

Area of Science:

• Renewable Energy
• Atmospheric Science
• Data Modeling

Background:

• Accurate estimation of global solar radiation (GHI) is crucial for solar energy applications.
• Existing models require validation against local measurements and satellite data.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate an existing numerical model for estimating GHI in three Tunisian locations.
• To compare model estimations with meteorological measurements and PV_GIS satellite data.

Main Methods:

• Utilized statistical indicators (R, R², MPE, AMPE, MBE, AMBE, RMSE) to assess model performance.
• Compared model-derived GHI with ground-based meteorological data and satellite imagery.
• Analyzed data from three distinct Tunisian sites.

Main Results:

• The model demonstrated high accuracy, with correlation coefficients (R) close to 1.0 for most stations.
• Determination coefficients (R²) between model, meteorology, and satellite data were near 1.0.
• The Nabeul station showed a lower R (0.5848) due to data loss from meteorological conditions.

Conclusions:

• The numerical model is highly effective for estimating GHI in Tunisia.
• Statistical results confirm the model's compatibility with meteorological data, achieving an error rate below 10%.
• This validated model can be reliably used for solar resource assessment in Tunisia.