Severe weather event attribution: Why values won't go away.

Area of Science:

• Climate science
• Philosophy of science
• Extreme weather event attribution

Background:

• Scientific attribution of climate change to extreme weather events is complex.
• Two primary methods exist: storyline and probabilistic (risk-based).
• Both methods involve social values and different error profiles.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review and analyze the social values inherent in climate change attribution methods.
• To examine the debate surrounding error reduction (false negatives vs. false positives).
• To investigate the role of second-order inductive risk in these methods.

Main Methods:

• Review of scientific attribution methodologies.
• Analysis of implicit debates on error and objectivity.
• Examination of social and ethical merits claimed by different approaches.

Main Results:

• Neither storyline nor probabilistic methods achieve complete scientific objectivity.
• Both approaches are influenced by social values and human interests.
• Claims of objectivity for the probabilistic approach are challenged.

Conclusions:

• Climate scientists cannot avoid making value judgments in attribution studies.
• Understanding the role of values is crucial for interpreting attribution results.
• Both methods have limitations in detaching science from human values.