When does risk outweigh reward? Identifying potential scoring strategies with netball's new two-point rule

Changing rules to promote scoring through more 'high-risk' play has become common in team sports. Australia's national netball league (i.e. Suncorp Super Netball) has recently taken this approach-introducing a two-point shooting rule. Teams will be awarded two-points for shots made from an 'outer circle' 3.0m-4.9m from the goal in the final five minutes of quarters. We sought to answer a series of questions regarding the implementation and potential strategies surrounding the two-point rule in Suncorp Super Netball. We used video coded data from the 2018 Suncorp Super Netball season to identify the total number of made and missed shots from different distances across the season. We also used shooting statistics from recent Fast5 Netball World Series (a competition with a two-point shooting rule already in place) as a comparator. The reward of two-points is relatively well-aligned to the relative risk of missing shots from the proposed outer versus inner circle (2.22 [1.98, 2.48 95% CIs]) based on existing shooting data from Suncorp Super Netball teams. We found that the relative risk of missing shots from 'long-' (i.e. 3.5m-4.0m) versus 'mid-range' (i.e. 3.0-3.5m) was only slightly elevated (1.52 [1.21, 1.86 95% CIs])-suggesting teams should favour long- over mid-range shots when the two-point shot is available. Based on the typical number of shots a team receives in a five-minute period, we found that teams may be able to score ~3.51 extra points per quarter when taking all versus no-shots from the two-point outer circle. Analysis of the Fast5 versus Suncorp Super Netball data did, however, reveal that shooting accuracy from long-range may decrease when a two-point shot is available. Teams may need to consider situational factors (e.g. altered opposition defensive strategies) when developing their shooting strategy for taking advantage of the two-point shot.