Pop-guide: Population modeling guidance, use, interpretation, and development for ecological risk assessment

Area of Science:

• Ecological risk assessment
• Population modeling
• Environmental science

Background:

• Population models are crucial for ecological risk assessment (ERA) but face challenges in complexity, uncertainty, and data availability.
• Ensuring models align with ERA objectives has been difficult, hindering effective risk assessment.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a comprehensive approach, Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE), for developing population models for ERA.
• To provide guidance for creating models that are commensurate with ERA objectives and data availability across regulatory statutes.

Main Methods:

• Integrated a modeling framework and decision guide into the Pop-GUIDE approach.
• Pop-GUIDE guides users through trade-offs (generality, realism, precision) to define model objectives (Phase 1).
• Assimilated and characterized available data (Phase 2) and used dichotomous questions to develop a conceptual model matching assessment needs and data (Phase 3).

Main Results:

• Pop-GUIDE offers a stepwise process for developing population models tailored to ERA.
• The framework ensures model complexity and uncertainty are appropriate for the assessment objective and data.
• Demonstrated Pop-GUIDE's utility with case studies involving fish and US regulatory statutes (FIFRA, ESA).

Conclusions:

• Pop-GUIDE is the most comprehensive guidance to date for population model development in ERA.
• This approach enhances consistency and transparency in the modeling process for risk assessors.
• Pop-GUIDE is applicable across various regulatory statutes and assessment objectives.