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Exact properties of SIQR model for COVID-19
1Kyushu University, Nishiku, Fukuoka 819-0395, Japan.
Physica A
|November 30, 2020
Summary
Quarantine measures are more effective than lockdowns for controlling COVID-19. This study reformulates the SIQR model, showing quarantine rate significantly impacts the maximum infected numbers and pandemic control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 pandemic necessitates effective control strategies.
- Mathematical models are crucial for understanding disease dynamics.
- Existing models may require adaptation for specific pandemic characteristics.
Purpose of the Study:
- Reformulate the SIQR model for COVID-19.
- Analyze the impact of quarantine and lockdown measures.
- Propose an optimal strategy for pandemic control.
Main Methods:
- Reformulation of the SI Structure and Quarantine (SIQR) model.
- Mathematical analysis of model properties.
- Application of expected utility theory for strategy optimization.
Main Results:
- Quarantine rate strongly influences the maximum number of infected individuals.
- Quarantine measures demonstrate higher efficacy than lockdown measures.
- The peak in quarantined cases follows the peak in infected cases.
Conclusions:
- The SIQR model provides insights into COVID-19 dynamics.
- Quarantine is a more effective intervention than lockdown.
- An optimal strategy framework aids in minimizing infections and controlling outbreaks.
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