Predicting Macrophage Activation Syndrome in Childhood-onset Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Patients at Diagnosis

Macrophage activation syndrome (MAS), a life-threatening inflammatory complication, is increasingly recognized in childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (cSLE). It can be a challenge to differentiate active cSLE from MAS. We generated decision rules for discriminating MAS from active cSLE in newly diagnosed patients.

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of consecutive, newly diagnosed, active cSLE patients with fever, requiring hospital admission to The Hospital for Sick Children from January 2003 to December 2007 (cohort 1) and January 2008 to December 2013 (cohort 2). All patients met ≥ 4 American College of Rheumatology or Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics criteria, and were steroid-naïve and infection-free. MAS was diagnosed based on expert opinion. Recursive partitioning was applied to each cohort to derive a decision rule based on clinical and laboratory features, distinguishing MAS from non-MAS cSLE. Each decision rule was applied to the alternate, independent cohort. Sensitivity and specificity of these decision rules were compared to existing criteria.

Cohort 1 (n = 34) and cohort 2 (n = 41) each had 10 patients with MAS. Recursive partitioning in cohort 1 identified ferritin ≥ 699 μg/L as the sole best discriminator between MAS and non-MAS patients (R² = 0.48), and in cohort 2, ferritin ≥ 1107 μg/L was the best discriminator for MAS, followed by lymphocytes < 0.72 × 10³/mm³ (R² = 0.52). Cross-validation of our decision rules maintained 90-100% sensitivity and 65-85% specificity.

Our decision rule demonstrated improved performance compared to preliminary guidelines for MAS in cSLE from the Lupus Working Group of the Paediatric Rheumatology European Society and familial hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis diagnostic criteria. Validation in independent cohorts is required.