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Notes on Computational Uncertainties in Probabilistic Risk/Safety Assessment.
1Department of Mechanical and Production Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Computational complexity creates uncertainties in risk assessment. Bounded calculation capacity influences model design and decision-making, impacting safety analysis.
Area of Science:
- Risk and Safety Analysis
- Computational Science
- Decision Theory
Background:
- Probabilistic risk/safety assessment involves inherent epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.
- Risk analysts operate under constraints of bounded calculation capacity.
- This limitation influences the design of risk models and subsequent decision-making.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate computational uncertainties in probabilistic risk/safety assessment.
- To analyze the impact of bounded calculation capacity on risk analysis.
- To propose methodological improvements addressing calculability limitations.
Main Methods:
- Review of state-of-the-art assessment algorithms for fault trees and event trees.
- Exploration of computational complexity in risk indicator calculations.
- Development of a taxonomy for modeling technologies.
Main Results:
- Computational complexity introduces significant uncertainties into risk assessment outcomes.
- Bounded calculability over-determines both risk model design and decision-making processes.
- Existing assessment algorithms for fault and event trees are analyzed in light of computational constraints.
Conclusions:
- Methodological proposals are made to address the conceptual and practical consequences of bounded calculability.
- Recognizing and managing computational limitations is crucial for robust risk assessment.
- Future research should focus on developing computationally feasible yet accurate risk analysis methods.

