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Complexity Analysis of Carbon Market Using the Modified Multi-Scale Entropy
Jiuli Yin1, Cui Su1, Yongfen Zhang2
1Center for Energy Development and Environmental Protection Strategy Research, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212013, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 3, 2020
Summary
China's pilot carbon markets show low complexity, indicating immaturity and inefficiency. Complexity varies by timescale, generally higher in shorter terms, but improves with market development, suggesting a need for effective carbon markets.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Economics
- Climate Policy Analysis
- Market Complexity Studies
Background:
- Carbon markets are crucial market-based mechanisms for reducing climate pollution.
- Existing emission trading markets exhibit complex characteristics influenced by general market regulations.
- Assessing the complexity and efficiency of nascent carbon markets is vital for effective climate policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the complexity of pilot carbon markets in China using multi-scale entropy.
- To evaluate the market efficiency and developmental stage of China's emission trading schemes.
- To understand the relationship between market development, complexity, and efficiency over different time scales.
Main Methods:
- Application of multi-scale entropy to quantify carbon market complexity.
- Utilizing moving average techniques to extract relevant time scales from short data sets.
- Comparative analysis of complexity across different pilot carbon markets in China.
Main Results:
- Pilot carbon markets in China demonstrate a low level of complexity, suggesting immaturity and inefficiency.
- Market complexity varies across different time scales, with higher complexity observed in shorter periods for most markets.
- An increasing trend in complexity was observed in most pilot markets as they developed, indicating improving market efficiency.
Conclusions:
- China's pilot carbon markets are currently immature and lack significant market efficiency.
- Market efficiency appears to improve with market development, as evidenced by increasing complexity over time.
- Effective carbon market design and regulation are essential for the successful functioning of emission trading systems.
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