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Entropy-Based Risk Control of Geological Disasters in Mountain Tunnels under Uncertain Environments
Yuanpu Xia1, Ziming Xiong1,2, Zhu Wen1,2
1State Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention & Mitigation of Explosion & Impact, the Army Engineering University of PLA, Nanjing 210007, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 3, 2020
Summary
This study improves uncertainty evaluation and risk control in tunnel engineering by addressing issues in existing entropy-hazard models. The proposed methods enhance decision-making accuracy and reliability for geological hazards.
Area of Science:
- Geotechnical Engineering
- Risk Management
- Decision Science
Background:
- Uncertainty in geological hazards poses significant risks in tunnel engineering, impacting evaluation accuracy and decision-making reliability.
- Existing entropy-hazard models face challenges with inefficient and failed decision-making processes.
- Effective evaluation and control of uncertainty's impact on risk are crucial for safe underground engineering.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze limitations of current entropy-hazard models in tunnel engineering.
- To propose an improved process for uncertainty evaluation and risk control.
- To investigate the role of tolerance cost and decision-maker psychology in risk assessment.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of existing entropy-hazard models and multi-attribute decision-making models (e.g., expected utility-entropy).
- Development of an improved uncertainty evaluation and control process.
- Discussion of tolerance cost and the significance of risk value change (R1) in decision-making.
- Application of proposed methods to explain phenomena like the Allais paradox.
Main Results:
- An improved uncertainty evaluation and control process was developed, addressing limitations of existing models.
- The study highlights the importance of tolerance cost and risk value change (R1) in reflecting decision-maker behavior.
- Different decision-making issues necessitate distinct decision methods, as demonstrated by explaining the Allais paradox.
- Engineering applications confirmed the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty control methods.
Conclusions:
- The developed uncertainty control approach is accurate and effective for tunnel engineering applications.
- The research provides a foundation for future studies on uncertainty and risk control in underground works.
- This work enhances the reliability of decision-making schemes in the face of geological uncertainties.
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