The Physiatry Workforce in 2019 and Beyond, Part 2: Modeling Results

Area of Science:

• Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation
• Health Workforce Analysis
• Healthcare Economics

Background:

• The supply of physiatrists is crucial for addressing rehabilitation and musculoskeletal needs.
• Understanding current and future workforce adequacy is essential for healthcare planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the current and projected supply and demand of physiatrists in the United States.
• To identify potential shortfalls and inform strategies for workforce development.

Main Methods:

• A 2019 online survey of 616 board-certified physiatrists.
• Microsimulation models utilizing data from multiple national health and demographic sources.
• Analysis of practice characteristics, workload, and retirement intentions.

Main Results:

• A national shortfall of 940 (10.6%) physiatrists was identified in 2017, with significant geographic disparities.
• Workloads exceed capacity for approximately 37% of active physiatrists.
• Projected growth in supply and demand suggests a persistent shortfall of 1080 (9.7%) physiatrists by 2030.

Conclusions:

• The current national physiatrist shortfall is projected to persist without an increase in residency positions.
• While advanced practice providers may mitigate access issues, they are unlikely to eliminate the overall deficit.
• Strategic interventions are needed to ensure adequate physiatrist supply for future healthcare demands.