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Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model
Jennifer Perez-Oregon1,2, Fernando Angulo-Brown2, Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis1,3
1Solid Earth Physics Institute, Physics Department, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece.
Abstract:
Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.
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