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Police demilitarization and violent crime.

Kenneth Lowande1

  • 1Department of Political Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. lowande@umich.edu.

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|December 8, 2020
PubMed
Summary

Police militarization through the 1033 Program shows no significant impact on crime or officer safety. Studies claiming crime reduction benefits are unreliable due to data limitations and unobserved factors.

Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Public Policy
  • Law Enforcement Studies

Background:

  • Contradictory claims exist regarding the effects of military equipment on local law enforcement.
  • Existing studies face severe data limitations and inferential challenges, hindering understanding of police militarization.
  • The 1033 Program facilitates the transfer of military equipment to civilian law enforcement agencies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the magnitude of bias in existing studies of the 1033 Program.
  • To evaluate the impact of military equipment on crime and officer safety.
  • To assess the effects of demilitarization policies on law enforcement outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized 3.8 million archived inventory records to identify sources of bias in prior research.

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  • Employed difference-in-difference analysis on agencies affected by Executive Order 13688's demilitarization.
  • Compared outcomes for departments that retained military equipment versus those that were demilitarized.

    • Main Results:

    • Most variation in police militarization stems from unobserved factors, challenging the reliability of studies showing crime reduction.
    • Forced demilitarization via Executive Order 13688 showed negligible or undetectable impacts on violent crime rates.
    • No significant effects on officer safety were detected following the recall of military equipment.

    Conclusions:

    • Existing studies on the crime-reduction benefits of police militarization are likely unreliable.
    • Federal reforms aimed at demilitarizing police are unlikely to carry the significant downside risks suggested by proponents of military transfers.
    • The findings suggest that demilitarization policies may not negatively impact public safety or law enforcement effectiveness.