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Can scavengers save zebras from anthrax? A modeling study.

Crystal Mackey¹, Christopher Kribs¹

¹Department of Mathematics, University of Texas at Arlington, 411 South Nedderman Drive, Box 19408, Arlington, TX, 76019, USA.

Infectious Disease Modelling

|December 14, 2020

Summary

Scavengers consuming anthrax-infected zebra carcasses in Etosha National Park help control deadly anthrax outbreaks. This interaction also benefits scavengers by providing a food source, impacting population dynamics.

Keywords:

Anthrax Demographic reproductive number Disease ecology Dynamical system Scavengers

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Area of Science:

Ecology
Epidemiology
Mathematical Biology

Background:

Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) causes significant mortality in grazing animals like zebras in Etosha National Park, Namibia.
Increased animal carcasses from anthrax outbreaks provide a food source for scavengers, such as jackals.
The interaction between disease dynamics and scavenger behavior in wildlife ecosystems is complex and requires investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the interplay between anthrax transmission in zebras and carcass scavenging in Etosha National Park.
To determine conditions under which scavengers can control anthrax outbreaks in zebra populations.
To assess the long-term impact of anthrax-driven carcass production on scavenger populations.

Main Methods:

A deterministic mathematical model was developed to simulate population dynamics.
Qualitative analysis techniques were employed to identify stable equilibria.
Reproduction numbers were used as threshold quantities to distinguish outcomes.

Main Results:

Scavengers feeding on anthrax-laden carcasses significantly reduce anthrax spread in zebra populations by eliminating infection sources.
Scavenging activity can decrease anthrax transmission by orders of magnitude.
Conditions were identified where anthrax presence benefits scavengers through altered death-to-birth ratios.

Conclusions:

Scavengers play a crucial role in mitigating anthrax outbreaks in Etosha National Park's zebra population.
The presence of anthrax can be beneficial for scavenger populations under specific ecological conditions.
Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into disease-ecology interactions in wildlife.