Community-Based Measurements Reveal Unseen Differences during Air Pollution Episodes

Short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution is linked to numerous adverse health effects. Pollution episodes, such as wildfires, can lead to substantial increases in PM_2.5 levels. However, sparse regulatory measurements provide an incomplete understanding of pollution gradients. Here, we demonstrate an infrastructure that integrates community-based measurements from a network of low-cost PM_2.5 sensors with rigorous calibration and a Gaussian process model to understand neighborhood-scale PM_2.5 concentrations during three pollution episodes (July 4, 2018, fireworks; July 5 and 6, 2018, wildfire; Jan 3-7, 2019, persistent cold air pool, PCAP). The firework/wildfire events included 118 sensors in 84 locations, while the PCAP event included 218 sensors in 138 locations. The model results accurately predict reference measurements during the fireworks (n: 16, hourly root-mean-square error, RMSE, 12.3-21.5 μg/m³, n(normalized)RMSE: 14.9-24%), the wildfire (n: 46, RMSE: 2.6-4.0 μg/m³; nRMSE: 13.1-22.9%), and the PCAP (n: 96, RMSE: 4.9-5.7 μg/m³; nRMSE: 20.2-21.3%). They also revealed dramatic geospatial differences in PM_2.5 concentrations that are not apparent when only considering government measurements or viewing the US Environmental Protection Agency's AirNow visualizations. Complementing the PM_2.5 estimates and visualizations are highly resolved uncertainty maps. Together, these results illustrate the potential for low-cost sensor networks that combined with a data-fusion algorithm and appropriate calibration and training can dynamically and with improved accuracy estimate PM_2.5 concentrations during pollution episodes. These highly resolved uncertainty estimates can provide a much-needed strategy to communicate uncertainty to end users.