Protein hourglass: Exact first passage time distributions for protein thresholds

Protein thresholds have been shown to act as an ancient timekeeping device, such as in the time to lysis of Escherichia coli infected with bacteriophage λ. The time taken for protein levels to reach a particular threshold for the first time is defined as the first passage time (FPT) of the protein synthesis system, which is a stochastic quantity. The first few moments of the distribution of first passage times were known earlier, but an analytical expression for the full distribution was not available. In this work, we derive an analytical expression for the first passage times for a long-lived protein. This expression allows us to calculate the full distribution not only for cases of no self-regulation, but also for both positive and negative self-regulation of the threshold protein. We show that the shape of the distribution matches previous experimental data on λ-phage lysis time distributions. We also provide analytical expressions for the FPT distribution with non-zero degradation in Laplace space. Furthermore, we study the noise in the precision of the first passage times described by coefficient of variation (CV) of the distribution as a function of the protein threshold value. We show that under conditions of positive self-regulation, the CV declines monotonically with increasing protein threshold, while under conditions of linear negative self-regulation, there is an optimal protein threshold that minimizes the noise in the first passage times.