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Using the Novel Mortality-Prevalence Ratio to Evaluate Potentially Undocumented SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Correlational
Sheng-Hsuan Lin1, Shih-Chen Fu1, Chu-Lan Michael Kao1
1Institute of Statistics, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan.
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
|December 17, 2020
Summary
The study found a strong link between COVID-19 prevalence and mortality rates globally. Reducing disease transmission is crucial for lowering deaths, and comparing mortality-prevalence ratios can reveal undocumented infections.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant global mortality, with varying rates across countries.
- Understanding factors influencing COVID-19 mortality is critical for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between COVID-19 prevalence and mortality rates within countries.
- To quantify the impact of disease prevalence on mortality outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Data from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center on daily deaths, recoveries, and confirmed cases were analyzed.
- A global panel regression analysis was conducted on 36 countries with over 10,000 confirmed cases.
- Mortality was calculated as the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases.
Main Results:
- A significant positive correlation (ρ=0.8304) was found between COVID-19 prevalence and mortality.
- Each additional confirmed case per 1000 individuals correlated with a 1.29% increase in mortality.
- Over 70% of excess mortality was attributable to prevalence, with significant heterogeneity among countries.
Conclusions:
- A clear association between COVID-19 mortality and prevalence, termed the mortality-prevalence ratio, was established.
- Constraining disease transmission is vital for reducing mortality.
- Comparing mortality-prevalence ratios can help detect and quantify undocumented SARS-CoV-2 infections.
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