Nomograms for predicting overall and recurrence-free survival after trimodality therapy for esophageal adenocarcinoma

Locally advanced esophageal carcinoma is treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophagectomy. Patients may still experience recurrence and death despite undergoing potentially curative trimodality therapy. This study describes predictive nomograms for recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) after the completion of trimodality therapy.

A total of 215 patients with esophageal adenocarcinoma underwent trimodality therapy from September 2010 to April 2018. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to create nomograms for OS and RFS. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were calculated for OS and RFS comparing high-risk and low-risk cohorts.

On multivariate analysis, clinical N-stage, tumor differentiation, tumor regression grade, anastomotic leak, body mass index, age, and number of lymph nodes removed were predictive variables for overall survival. Clinical N-stage, tumor differentiation, tumor regression grade, anastomotic leak, age, and positive lymph nodes were significant predictors of RFS in a multivariate model. The nomogram for OS had good predictive ability (Harrell's Concordance index [C-index]: 0.71 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 0.66-0.76]). The nomogram for RFS also performed well (C-index: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.65-0.74]).

Our nomograms can accurately predict OS and RFS after trimodality therapy and may provide guidance regarding adjuvant therapy and surveillance.