Is centenarian rate independent from economy?

Economy development and income are compactly associated with mortality of infant, children, young people, and mid age all over the world, and high income brings higher life expectancy, aging rate and 80+ rate as a result. On the contrary, the relationship between income and centenarian rate is obscure, in China, low income regions have lower life expectancy, lower 80+ rate but higher 90+ rate and 100+ rate before 2000, but 90+ rate and centenarian rate in low income regions fall behind high income regions after 2010.

The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between regional economic performance and centenarian rate in long period.

Gravity center of five longevity indicators, demographic methodology between age-specific mortality rate and centenarian rate were conducted of 31 provinces in China from 1982 to 2018. We also explored the association between centenarian rate and per capita income using binary logistic regression.

higher income brings better medical care and mortality rate is sharply decreased, among all age stages, the age 70-84 has the highest number of death, and will get most number of extra lives when the mortality rate decreases, and then 80+ rate will be increased immediately. Meanwhile, the extra 70-84 years people increased denominator of 90+ rate and centenarian rate, then 90+ rate and centenarian rate in higher income region will be fall behind. 10-20 years later, benefited from additional 70-84 years population, the number of 90+ will be largely increased. 20-30 years later, the number of 100+ will be largely increased too.

Income is positively related with lower mortality rate of oldest-old and higher 90+ rate and centenarian rate, although the effect will be lagged for 10-20 years and 20-30 years, respectively.