Null Effects of the State Pension Age on Mortality in the Netherlands

Increasing the state pension (SP) age in the Netherlands from 65 years in 2012 to 67 in 2024 has been shown to cause individuals to work longer. This study addresses a concern regarding possible adverse health effects of an increased SP-age, for example, because individuals trade health investments for working time. We empirically investigated the effects of individuals' SP-age on their annual probability of dying (mortality)-our health measure-by using data for the period 2012-2022 of 1.6 million individuals born in the years 1950-1957. For estimating causal effects we used a regression discontinuity framework which exploited that individuals' SP-age depends on their year and month of birth. Our empirical findings show negative associations of mortality with the SP-age and work, and do not support a causal effect of the SP-age on mortality, nor a causal effect of work on mortality. These findings hold for both genders, across socioeconomic groups, and for different causes of death. Hence, our findings suggest null effects of the SP-age on mortality.