Agent-based modelling of water balance in a social-ecological system: A multidisciplinary approach for mountain...

The European Alps are known as the 'water towers of Europe'. However, climatic and socioeconomic changes influence both water supply and demand, increasing the need to manage this limited and valuable resource properly to avoid user conflicts and water scarcity. Two major challenges emerge when assessing water scarcity in the Alps: Firstly, mountainous regions are very heterogeneous regarding water availability and demand over space and time, and therefore water scarcity assessments need to be done at low temporal and spatial scales. Secondly, the tight coupling of the natural and the social sphere necessitate an integrative approach considering dynamics and interactions of the social-ecological system. Hence, we applied the agent-based water supply and demand model Aqua.MORE, which is designed for catchment scale and sub-daily temporal resolution, to a case study site in the Italian Alps. In the model, the water supply, the local water managers and water users are represented by interacting model agents. We estimated the water supply by refining the annual runoff data provided by the InVEST water yield model for within-year variations. Local stakeholders contributed to the development of quantitative and spatially-explicit scenarios for land use and tourism evolution. To evaluate water supply and demand dynamics, we assessed six scenarios for the period of 2015 to 2050: three different socio-economic policy pathways, both alone and in combination with a climate change scenario. In all six scenarios, the water demand:supply (D:S) ratio continuously rises from 2015 to 2050.The highest D:S ratio values are prognosed at the beginning of the irrigation period in May. In all scenarios considering climatic changes, the D:S ratio exceeds 20% for several days, indicating potential water scarcity. The simulation results reinforce the importance of analysing water balances at a high temporal resolution and can support management processes and stakeholder dialogues for sustainable watershed management.