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US population growth is at a 100-year low, with rural areas experiencing significant population loss. This trend of natural decrease, where deaths outnumber births, is accelerating, especially in nonmetropolitan counties.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Rural Sociology

Background:

  • US population growth reached a century low prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
  • Nonmetropolitan America experienced historical population loss from 2010-2019.
  • Natural decrease (deaths exceeding births) is an increasing demographic trend, particularly in rural areas.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the growing incidence of natural population decrease in both rural and urban US counties.
  • To update the understanding of demographic shifts using recent data.
  • To assess the implications of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility trends.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized recent population data.
  • Employed a multivariate spatial regression model.
  • Analyzed county-level data on births and deaths.

Main Results:

  • Deaths exceeded births in 46% of US counties, a near-record high.
  • Nearly 79% of counties with natural decrease were nonmetropolitan.
  • The study identifies key factors contributing to natural population decrease.

Conclusions:

  • The findings highlight a significant demographic shift towards natural decrease across the US.
  • The Covid-19 pandemic is expected to exacerbate mortality increases and fertility declines.
  • Future nonmetropolitan demographic trends will be significantly impacted by these ongoing changes.