Predicting lupus flares: epidemiological and disease related risk factors

Introduction: Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disorder, characterized by a relapsing and remitting pattern of disease activity in majority of the patients. Areas covered: This narrative review provides an overview of flare definition, major flare mimics, and the burden of flares in SLE. The authors highlight epidemiology and disease-related risk factor for flares and discuss strategies to reduce flares in SLE. Articles were selected from Pubmed searches conducted between June 2020 and September 2020. Expert opinion: Prolonged clinical remission is observed in approximately 20% of SLE patients flare over the course of the disease. Studies have shown that low disease activity is a good target in SLE, with similar risk of flares, mortality, and quality of life when compared to patients in remission. Clinical and immunological features have shown inconsistent results to identify patients at risk of flares in different cohorts. Cytokine, in serum and urine, has shown promising results to predict flares. However to be useful in clinical practice, they have to be simple, easy, and cost-effective. Future efforts in this direction will allow a more personalized treatment plan for SLE patients, reducing the burden associated with flares.