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Prediction Intervals01:03

Prediction Intervals

2.7K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y. 
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Associative Learning01:27

Associative Learning

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Associative learning is a fundamental concept in behavioral psychology, wherein a connection is established between two stimuli or events, leading to a learned response. This process is critical in understanding how behaviors are acquired and modified. Conditioning, the mechanism through which associations are formed, can be divided into two main types: classical conditioning and operant conditioning, each elucidating different aspects of associative learning.
Classical conditioning, also known...
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error00:59

Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error

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An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
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Probability Laws01:49

Probability Laws

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Overview
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End Point Prediction: Gran Plot01:07

End Point Prediction: Gran Plot

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A Gran plot is used to predict the equivalence volume or endpoint of a potentiometric or acid-base titration without reaching the endpoint. Typically, titration data is collected as a function of the titrant's volume up to a point less than the equivalence volume and then transformed into a linear format. The straight line is extended to the x-axis, indicating the necessary titrant volume to achieve the equivalence point.
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting...
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Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error01:10

Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error

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The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Nov 23, 2025

Author Spotlight: A Computational Approach to Decipher Amino Acid Preferences in Multispecific Protein-Protein Interactions
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Author Spotlight: A Computational Approach to Decipher Amino Acid Preferences in Multispecific Protein-Protein Interactions

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Probabilistic Predictions with Federated Learning.

Adam Thor Thorgeirsson1,2, Frank Gauterin2

  • 1Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG, 71287 Weissach, Germany.

Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 5, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a novel method for probabilistic machine learning in federated learning settings. It enables accurate predictions with uncertainty quantification, matching non-distributed model performance.

Keywords:
Bayesian deep learningfederated learningpredictive uncertaintyprobabilistic machine learning

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Area of Science:

  • Machine Learning
  • Distributed Systems
  • Bayesian Inference

Background:

  • Probabilistic predictions are crucial in machine learning but often computationally expensive with Bayesian methods.
  • Federated learning offers efficient and private training on distributed data but lacks predictive uncertainty.
  • Existing methods struggle to balance computational cost, privacy, and uncertainty quantification in federated settings.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel approach for incorporating predictive uncertainty into federated learning.
  • To address the computational expense and privacy concerns of traditional Bayesian methods in distributed environments.
  • To enable accurate probabilistic predictions within a federated learning framework.

Main Methods:

  • Treating local model weights as a posterior distribution during the aggregation step.
  • Modifying the aggregation process in federated learning to include uncertainty.
  • Comparing the proposed method against state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian probabilistic learning algorithms.

Main Results:

  • The proposed federated learning approach successfully incorporates predictive uncertainty.
  • Performance was evaluated using proper scoring rules on predictive distributions.
  • The method achieved performance comparable to non-distributed benchmarks.

Conclusions:

  • This novel aggregation strategy effectively introduces uncertainty into federated learning.
  • The approach offers a viable solution for probabilistic predictions in distributed, privacy-preserving machine learning.
  • It bridges the gap between efficient federated learning and the need for uncertainty quantification.