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Local sea level trends, accelerations and uncertainties over 1993-2019.

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This study quantifies local sea level uncertainties from satellite altimetry, providing crucial error estimates for regional climate change analysis. These findings improve the reliability of sea level trend and acceleration data at local scales.

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Area of Science:

  • Earth and Ocean Sciences
  • Climate Science
  • Geophysics

Background:

  • Satellite altimetry has provided over 25 years of sea level data, crucial for climate change research.
  • Global mean sea level uncertainty is known, but local-scale uncertainties remain unaddressed.
  • Accurate regional sea level indicators are vital for understanding climate impacts.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate local satellite altimetry error budgets.
  • To derive local error variance-covariance matrices for sea level data.
  • To provide confidence intervals for local sea level trends and accelerations.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a local satellite altimetry error budget.
  • Calculated local error variance-covariance matrices.
  • Estimated 90% confidence intervals for sea level trends and accelerations.

Main Results:

  • Average local sea level trend uncertainty is 0.83 mm/year (range: 0.78–1.22 mm/year) for 1993-2019.
  • Uncertainties for sea level acceleration range from 0.057 to 0.12 mm/year, with a mean of 0.062 mm/year.
  • Sensitivity studies explored various plausible error budgets.

Conclusions:

  • This research provides the first local-scale uncertainty estimates for satellite-derived sea level trends and accelerations.
  • The derived error budgets and variance-covariance matrices enhance the reliability of regional sea level change assessments.
  • This work is essential for addressing critical climate science questions regarding local sea level rise impacts.