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Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - II

The Bradford Hill criteria serve as guidelines for establishing causative links in epidemiological research. Beyond Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality, key criteria also include Biological Gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. These principles assist scientists in assessing the likelihood of causation in complex biological contexts. Below is a summary of these concepts:

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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Nov 22, 2025

Task Interruption and Resumption Paradigm for Testing the Activation and Pursuit of an Abstract Thinking Goal

Task Interruption and Resumption Paradigm for Testing the Activation and Pursuit of an Abstract Thinking Goal

Published on: April 18, 2017

Norms Affect Prospective Causal Judgments.

Paul Henne^1,2, Kevin O'Neill³, Paul Bello⁴

¹Department of Philosophy, Lake Forest College.

Cognitive Science

|January 8, 2021

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

People tend to blame unusual actions for future events more than normal ones. This study explores this "abnormal-selection effect" using videos to predict future causes, not just explain past ones.

Keywords:

Causal judgment Causal reasoning Causal selection Causation Norms

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Psychology
Social Psychology
Behavioral Economics

Background:

The abnormal-selection effect describes the tendency to attribute outcomes to norm-violating causes.
Previous research primarily used retrospective vignette-based paradigms to study this effect.
A gap exists in understanding this effect in prospective causal judgments.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the abnormal-selection effect in prospective causal judgments.
To determine if people select norm-violating factors as causes for future outcomes.
To explore the role of perceived agency in this effect.

Main Methods:

Utilized a novel set of video stimuli.
Conducted four experiments to assess prospective causal judgments.
Examined the selection of norm-violating versus norm-conforming factors as causes.

Main Results:

People more frequently selected norm-violating factors as causes for future outcomes.
The abnormal-selection effect was observed in prospective judgments.
Perception of agency did not primarily explain the observed effects (Experiment 4).

Conclusions:

The abnormal-selection effect extends to prospective causal judgments.
This finding challenges previous assumptions about the study of causal judgment.
Results contribute to modeling efforts in causal judgment research.