Bayesian Linear Regression Modelling for Sperm Quality Parameters Using Age, Body Weight, Testicular Morphometry, and...

The aim of the present study is to define and compare the predictive power of two different Bayesian models for donkey sperm quality after the evaluation of linear and combined testicular biometry indices and their relationship with age and body weight (BW). Testicular morphometry was ultrasonographically obtained from 23 donkeys (six juveniles and 17 adults), while 40 ejaculates from eight mature donkeys were analyzed for sperm output and quality assessment. Bayesian linear regression analyses were considered to build two statistical models using gel-free volume, concentration, total sperm number, motility, total motile sperm, and morphology as dependent variables. Predictive model 1 comprised the covariate of age and the independent factors testicular measurements (length, height and width), while model 2 included the covariate of age and the factors of BW, testicular volume, and gonadosomatic ratio. Although goodness-of-fit was similar, the combination of predictors in model 1 evidenced higher likelihood to predict gel-free volume (mL), concentration (×10⁶/mL), and motility (%). Alternatively, the combination of predictors in model 2 evidenced higher predictive power for total sperm number (×10⁹), morphologically normal spermatozoa (%), and total motile sperm count (×10⁹). The application of the present models may be useful to gather relevant information that could be used hereafter for assisted reproductive technologies.