Active learning effectively identifies a minimal set of maximally informative and asymptotically performant cytotoxic...

The NCI-60 cancer cell line screening panel has provided insights for development of subtype-specific chemical therapies and repurposing. By extracting chemical structure and cytotoxicity patterns, virtual screening potentially complements the availability of high-throughput assay platforms and improves bioactive compound discovery rates by computational prefiltering of candidate compound libraries. Many groups report high prediction performances in computational models of NCI-60 data when using cross-validation or similar techniques, yet prospective therapy development in novel cancers may have little to no such data and further may not have the resources to perform hit identification using large compound libraries. In contrast to bulk screening and analysis, the active learning methodology has demonstrated how to identify compounds for screening in small batches and update computational models iteratively, leading to predictive models with a minimum number of compounds, and importantly clarifying data volumes at which limits in predictive ability are achieved. Here, in replicate per-cell line experiments using 50% of data (∼20 000 compounds) as the external prediction target, predictive limits are reproducibly demonstrated at the stage of systematic selection of 10-30% of the incorporable half. The pattern was consistent across all 60 cell lines. Limits of predictability are found to be correlated to the doubling times of cell lines and the number of cellular response discontinuities (activity cliffs) present per cell line. Organization into chemical scaffolds delineated degrees of predictive challenge. These results provide key insights for strategies in developing new inhibitors in existing cell lines or for future automated therapy selection in personalized oncotherapy.