Effect of ambient temperature on stroke onset: a time-series analysis between 2003 and 2014 in Shenzhen, China

Evidence on the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity of different stroke subtypes in China is limited. This study aimed to assess the influence of ambient temperature on stroke risk in Shenzhen, China.

From 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2014, 114 552 stroke cases in Shenzhen were collected. A generalised additive model with quasi-Poisson regression combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was applied to evaluate the temperature effects on stroke subtypes. Furthermore, this study explored the variability of the effects across sex, age and education.

The immediate heat effects on ischaemic stroke (IS) and the persistent effects of ambient temperature on intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) were significant. Overall, the cold-related relative risks (RRs) of IS, ICH and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) were 1.02 (0.97-1.07), 1.16 (1.04-1.30) and 1.12 (0.61-2.04), whereas the heat-related RRs were 1.00 (0.97-1.04), 0.80 (0.73-0.88) and 1.05 (0.63-1.78), respectively. For IS, a weakly beneficial cold effect was found among men while a detrimental heat effect among both men and women, the elderly and higher-educated population at lag0. However, regarding ICH, the temperature effects in men, the young and higher-educated population are stronger at lag0-4, lag0-7 as cold reveals threat and heat reveals protection.

Responses of diverse stroke subtypes to ambient temperature varied. Effective measures should be taken to increase public awareness about the effects of ambient temperature on stroke attack and to educate the public about self-protection.