Macroecological context predicts species' responses to climate warming.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Macroecology

Background:

• Species responses to climate change vary, hindering generalized predictions in biodiversity science.
• Macroecological context is crucial for understanding and predicting species' reactions to climate manipulations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To enhance the predictability of species' responses to climate change by integrating macroecological context into experimental data.
• To assess the utility of "climate differences"—the disparity between a species' climatic niche and experimental site conditions—in predicting ecological outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Combined data from an 8-year turf transplant climate change experiment in Norway with macroecological climate niche data for 151 vascular plant species.
• Utilized "climate differences" to predict colonization probability, extinction probability, and changes in species abundance.
• Analyzed species-specific and across-site variations in responses to climate manipulations.

Main Results:

• Colonization probability increased with warmer species distribution optima relative to the target site; extinction probability increased with colder optima.
• Climate differences proved more effective predictors of species' responses than range size.
• Observed weak species responses to increased precipitation in oceanic climates.

Conclusions:

• Integrating macroecological context into climate change experiments improves the predictability of species' responses.
• Findings support the validity of space-for-time substitutions for predicting climate warming impacts, provided other factors are controlled.
• The proposed method offers a framework for generalizing and predicting species' responses to climate change globally.