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Investor attention and cryptocurrency: Evidence from the Bitcoin market
Panpan Zhu1, Xing Zhang2, You Wu3
1School of Mathematics and Finance, Chuzhou University, Chuzhou, Anhui, China.
Plos One
|February 1, 2021
Summary
Investor attention significantly influences Bitcoin's return and volatility, acting as a key pricing factor. This finding supports behavioral finance theories and enhances Bitcoin return prediction accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Finance
- Cryptocurrency Markets
- Financial Econometrics
Background:
- Growing literature on cryptocurrency and behavioral finance.
- Investor attention is a novel factor in financial markets.
- Bitcoin's return and realized volatility are key financial characteristics.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate the relationship between investor attention and Bitcoin's financial characteristics (return and volatility).
- Examine the causal relationship and linear/non-linear impacts of investor attention on Bitcoin.
- Assess the predictive ability and economic value generation of investor attention in Bitcoin markets.
Main Methods:
- Granger causality tests to establish causal links.
- Analysis of linear and non-linear connections between investor attention and Bitcoin metrics.
- Out-of-sample forecasting using investor attention data.
- Economic portfolio construction to evaluate practical value.
Main Results:
- Investor attention Granger-causes changes in Bitcoin return and realized volatility.
- Investor attention exhibits sophisticated linear and non-linear impacts on Bitcoin.
- Investor attention improves the accuracy of Bitcoin return forecasts compared to benchmarks.
- Portfolios based on investor attention generate significant economic value.
Conclusions:
- Investor attention is a crucial determinant of Bitcoin's price dynamics.
- The findings provide empirical support for behavioral finance theories in crypto markets.
- Investor attention is a non-negligible pricing factor for Bitcoin, offering predictive and economic value.
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