Asymptomatic transmission shifts epidemic dynamics.
Jinlong Lv1, Songbai Guo1, Jing-An Cui1
1School of Science, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing 102616, China.
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE
|February 2, 2021
Summary
Asymptomatic transmission significantly impacts infectious disease spread. This study models waterborne diseases, revealing how asymptomatic cases alter epidemic dynamics and the basic reproduction number (R0).
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Asymptomatic transmission is increasingly recognized in recent epidemics and pandemics.
- Traditional infectious disease models often overlook asymptomatic spread, necessitating updated approaches.
- Understanding asymptomatic transmission is crucial for accurate epidemic forecasting and control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a compartmental model incorporating asymptomatic transmission for waterborne diseases.
- To analyze the impact of asymptomatic transmission on epidemic dynamics.
- To investigate the role of key parameters in shaping disease spread.
Main Methods:
- Proposed a compartmental model for waterborne infectious diseases with asymptomatic transmission.
- Conducted detailed mathematical analysis and numerical simulations.
- Utilized shigellosis data for model validation and parameter estimation.
Main Results:
- Identified two key parameters: proportion of asymptomatic infected individuals (p) and proportion of transmissible asymptomatic cases (k).
- Demonstrated that the basic reproduction number (R0) is sensitive to both p and k, with complex dependencies.
- Showed that neglecting asymptomatic transmission can lead to underestimation of R0 and inaccurate final epidemic size predictions.
Conclusions:
- Asymptomatic transmission significantly influences waterborne disease dynamics.
- The proposed model provides insights into the role of asymptomatic spread in epidemics.
- Findings offer valuable information for public health strategies targeting waterborne infectious diseases.
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