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Adapting our Flood Risk Policies to Changing Conditions.

Carolyn Kousky1, Howard Kunreuther1, Siyuan Xian2

  • 1Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|February 2, 2021
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Flood insurance premiums may not reflect rising risks due to grandfathering policies. This study examines the financial impact of these policies on the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) amid climate change.

Keywords:
Climate changeNational Flood Insurance Programgrandfatheringsea level rise

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Economics

Background:

  • Flooding is a major global natural disaster, with increasing risks in the U.S. due to development and climate change.
  • Current public policies and institutions struggle to adapt to evolving flood risk conditions.
  • The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) employs grandfathering, allowing policyholders to retain lower rates despite increased flood risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the financial impact of grandfathering on NFIP revenue and policyholder premiums.
  • To assess the effects of sea level rise on flood insurance affordability and program solvency.
  • To explore strategies for maintaining NFIP financial health while ensuring insurance affordability.

Main Methods:

  • Linking a flood hazard model with a flood insurance premium calculator.
  • Conducting illustrative calculations for a New York City neighborhood.
  • Analyzing the financial implications of grandfathering under projected sea level rise scenarios.

Main Results:

  • Illustrative calculations demonstrate the potential impact of grandfathering on NFIP revenue.
  • The study highlights how grandfathering affects policyholder premiums in the face of rising sea levels.
  • Findings underscore the financial strain grandfathering can place on the NFIP.

Conclusions:

  • Preserving the financial soundness of the NFIP is crucial.
  • Addressing insurance affordability is essential as flood risks escalate.
  • Policy adjustments are needed to balance financial stability with equitable insurance access.