Associations between private vaccine and antimicrobial consumption across Indian states, 2009-2017

Vaccines can reduce antibiotic use and, consequently, antimicrobial resistance by averting vaccine-preventable and secondary infections. We estimated the associations between private vaccine and antibiotic consumption across Indian states during 2009-2017 using monthly and annual consumption data from IQVIA and employed fixed-effects regression and the Arellano-Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model for panel data regression, which controlled for income and public sector vaccine use indicators obtained from other sources. In the annual data fixed-effects model, a 1% increase in private vaccine consumption per 1000 under-5 children was associated with a 0.22% increase in antibiotic consumption per 1000 people (P < 0.001). In the annual data GMM model, a 1% increase in private vaccine consumption per 1000 under-5 children was associated with a 0.2% increase in private antibiotic consumption (P < 0.001). In the monthly data GMM model, private vaccine consumption was negatively associated with antibiotic consumption when 32, 34, 35, and 44-47 months had elapsed after vaccine consumption, with a positive association with lags of fewer than 18 months. These results indicate vaccine-induced longer-term reductions in antibiotic use in India, similar to findings of studies from other low- and middle-income countries.