Lombardy, Northern Italy: COVID-19 second wave less severe and deadly than the first? A preliminary investigation

The much-heralded second wave of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has arrived in Italy. Right now, one of the main questions about COVID-19 is whether the second wave is less severe and deadly than the first wave. In order to answer this challenging question, we decided to evaluate the chest X-ray (CXR) severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, the mechanical ventilation (MV) use, the patient outcome, and certain clinical/laboratory data during the second wave and compare them with those of the first wave.

During the two COVID-19 waves two independent groups of hospitalised patients were selected. The first group consisted of the first 100 COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital during the first wave. The second group consisted of another 100 consecutive COVID-19 patients admitted to our hospital during the second wave. We enlisted only Caucasian male patients over the age of fifty for whom the final outcome was available. For each patient, the CXR severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, the MV use, the patient outcome, comorbidities, corticosteroid use, and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were considered. Nonparametric statistical tests were used to compare the data obtained from the two waves.

The CXR severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, the in-hospital mortality, and CRP levels were significantly higher in the first wave than in the second wave (p ≤ .041). Although not statistically significant, the frequency of MV use was higher in the first wave.

This preliminary investigation seems to confirm that the COVID-19 second wave is less severe and deadly than the first wave.