Development of Random Forest Algorithm Based Prediction Model of Alzheimer's Disease Using Neurodegeneration Pattern

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia and the prevalence rapidly increased as the elderly population increased worldwide. In the contemporary model of AD, it is regarded as a disease continuum involving preclinical stage to severe dementia. For accurate diagnosis and disease monitoring, objective index reflecting structural change of brain is needed to correctly assess a patient's severity of neurodegeneration independent from the patient's clinical symptoms. The main aim of this paper is to develop a random forest (RF) algorithm-based prediction model of AD using structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI).

We evaluated diagnostic accuracy and performance of our RF based prediction model using newly developed brain segmentation method compared with the Freesurfer's which is a commonly used segmentation software.

Our RF model showed high diagnostic accuracy for differentiating healthy controls from AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) using structural MRI, patient characteristics, and cognitive function (HC vs. AD 93.5%, AUC 0.99; HC vs. MCI 80.8%, AUC 0.88). Moreover, segmentation processing time of our algorithm (<5 minutes) was much shorter than of Freesurfer's (6-8 hours).

Our RF model might be an effective automatic brain segmentation tool which can be easily applied in real clinical practice.