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Melanoma mortality in Spain: predictions up to 2043
Fernando García-Souto1, Antonio Jose Durán-Romero2, Jose-Juan Pereyra-Rodríguez2,3
1Department of Dermatology, Valme University Hospital, Sevilla, Spain.
International Journal of Dermatology
|February 11, 2021
Summary
Melanoma mortality in Spain is projected to cause over 30,000 deaths by 2043, with older adults most affected. Prevention should target young people and elderly early detection.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Oncology
Background:
- Melanoma mortality rates are stabilizing globally, but Spain lacks future mortality predictions.
- This study addresses the need for melanoma mortality projections in Spain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project melanoma mortality in Spain from 2019 to 2043.
- To identify high-risk demographics for melanoma deaths.
Main Methods:
- Population-based ecological study using Spanish National Statistics Institute data (1979-2018).
- Analysis by gender and age group, with projections calculated using Nordpred software.
- Projections made in five-year intervals until 2043.
Main Results:
- An estimated 30,477.9 melanoma deaths are predicted in Spain (2019-2043).
- The >85 years age group is expected to have the highest mortality.
- Predicted age-standardized mortality rates decrease from 4.62/100,000 to 3.94/100,000 inhabitants over the projection period.
Conclusions:
- Melanoma mortality rates will rise in older adults but stabilize or decrease in younger populations in Spain.
- Prevention strategies should focus on young individuals and early detection education for the elderly.
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