Melanoma mortality in Spain: predictions up to 2043

Melanoma mortality rates are stabilizing and in certain regions and age groups are trending down. Although there are some studies that predict melanoma mortality in other countries, there are currently no studies that predict mortality in Spain in the coming years. The main aim of this study is to calculate melanoma mortality projections in Spain for the period 2019-2043.

This is a population-based ecological study that utilized information from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Analysis included deaths as a result of cutaneous melanoma in Spain in the period 1979-2018, and data was analyzed according to gender and age group. Projections were made until 2043 in five-year periods, calculated in Nordpred (within the R software).

Our estimates predict that in the period 2019-2043, there will be 30,477.9 deaths from melanoma in Spain, with the age group of >85 years being the group with the highest number of deaths. The expected average annual death rate for melanoma in both genders for the period 2019-2043 is 1,269.9 deaths / year. The predicted age-standardized mortality rates varied between 4.62/100.000 inhabitants in the 2019-2023 period and 3.94/100.000 inhabitants in the 2039-2043 period.

Overall mortality rate and age-standardized melanoma death rates in older people of both genders will increase in the coming years in Spain, while rates in younger people will stabilize or decrease progressively. In the coming years, prevention efforts should focus on the young, but the emphasis should also be on educating the elderly in early detection of melanoma.