Sleep duration and type 2 diabetes risk: A prospective study in a population-based Mexican American cohort

The primary aim of the study was to estimate the effect of sleep duration on prospective type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk across demographic characteristics and follow-up periods, and test body mass index (BMI) as a mediator and moderator.

Data included adults (M_age = 39.0 ± 12.7 years) born in the United States or Mexico recruited from 2001 to 2012 in a Mexican American cohort study conducted in Houston, TX (n = 15,779). Participants completed self-reported questionnaires at baseline related to health, health behaviors (sleep duration, physical activity, smoking, drinking), and sociocultural factors and were followed up annually.

Cox proportional hazard models estimated hazard ratios (HR) for the effect of sleep duration on T2D diagnosis at follow-up. Of the participants, 10.3% were diagnosed with T2D. Self-reported ≤5 hours of sleep, compared to 7-8 hours, at baseline predicted greater risk for T2D (HR = 1.32, P = .001), yet was no longer significant after adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and BMI. Notably, those with BMI <25 kg/m² reporting ≤5 hours of sleep were at significant risk for T2D at 3 (HR = 4.13, P = .024) and 5-year follow-up (HR = 3.73, P = .008) compared to 7-8 hours. Obesity status accounted for 31.6% and 27.3% of the variance in the association between ≤5 and 6 hours of sleep and increased T2D risk, respectively.

Results highlighted the mediating and moderating role of BMI, and its effect on T2D risk at earlier follow-up among those without obesity. T2D prevention and control for Mexican American adults should consider the role of chronic sleep loss.